Big Flip

Hola nofinancieros,

En el pod-newsletter de hoy: 1. Biden y la inflación. 2. Desempleo en EEUU y Europa. 3. Tipos del BoE 4. Liz Truss habla. 5. Big Flip.

INTRO

Disclose.tv @disclosetv

NOW - Biden: Inflation "was already there when I got here, man."

Disclose.tv @disclosetv

MORE - Inflation was at 1.4% when Biden took office in January 2021.

DESEMPLEO MUY BAJO

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner

In case you missed it: The US unemployment rate hit an ultra-low 3.4%. To find a water mark lower than that, you'd have to go all the way back to 1953. axios.com/newsletters/ax…

Ruben1985 @Ruben1985_

(1/7)La tasa de desempleo en los EE.UU. se acaba de situar en el 3,4%, su nivel más bajo desde 1969. Esta noticia me ha recordado un interesante trabajo de @AntonioFatas sobre la (in)capacidad de la economía estadounidense para sostener en el tiempo una situación de pleno empleo.

Ruben1985 @Ruben1985_

(2/7) Según el estudio de Fatás, históricamente en los EE.UU., “el desempleo alcanza su punto más bajo alrededor de 12 meses antes de la recesión y, en la mayoría de los casos, comienza a aumentar en los meses anteriores a la recesión.”

zerohedge @zerohedge

gets better and better: *LAGARDE: UNEMPLOYMENT COULD RISE OVER THE COMING QUARTERS *LAGARDE: RATE OF AT WHICH JOBS ARE BEING CREATED MAY SLOW

zerohedge @zerohedge

LAGARDE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HAS SLOWED MARKEDLY and LAGARDE: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING https://t.co/Qy19ZShgZm

4% BANCO DE INGLATERRA

Bank of England @bankofengland

We’ve raised #BankRate to 4% today. Inflation has started to fall, but it is still much too high. Raising interest rates is the best way we have to ensure low and stable inflation. Andrew Bailey explains more below. b-o-e.uk/MPR-Feb-2023

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AHORA LA IZQUIERDA ECONÓMICA ES EL MERCADO, AMIGA LIZ.

Izabella Kaminska @izakaminska

👀👀👀👀 telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/…

telegraph.co.ukLiz Truss: I was brought down by the left-wing economic establishmentExclusive: In an essay for The Telegraph, former PM stands by her policies and criticises Rishi Sunak’s corporation tax increase

BIG FLIP

#bigflip KKGB (Carlo Casio) @INArteCarloDoss

#bigflip Never forget, this is where the concept of the big flip was articulated first and foremost. Copies followed! 😄

Labden @0xLabden

@INArteCarloDoss What if big flip going viral is what causes panic in the markets and its a self fulfilling prophecy

Sam Lawhon @lawhon_sam

If you are not familiar with the #bigflip thesis, coined by the great @INArteCarloDoss, the bottom line is this: -Labor inflation is entrenched and remains very hot (holding core inflation high) -Goods will inflect higher (leading to more volatile inflation The consequences are:

Sam Lawhon @lawhon_sam

-Repricing of the yield curve (no cuts in '23) -Dollar up -Equities lower -Precious metals lower

Sam Lawhon @lawhon_sam

Right now the market is pricing in a perfect scenario or "Gothilocks" as a famous shrub @agnostoxxx puts it. This illustrates a fundamental misunderstanding by the market of longer tail inflation dynamics and will have to reprice lower.

¡Un placer! ¡Hasta Mañana!

Mariano Angulo Solves

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MÁS ALLÁ DEL DINERO

Hasui Kawase II

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